Creeping Determinism: Why We’re All Smarter After the Fact
If you’ve ever watched a sports replay and thought, “Well, of course they lost — the signs were obvious,” you’ve experienced what Malcolm Gladwell calls creeping determinism in his book What the Dog Saw. It’s the idea that once we know how something turned out, we convince ourselves it was inevitable all along.
The problem? It wasn’t inevitable. It just feels that way in hindsight.
The Hindsight Trap
Creeping determinism is basically hindsight bias with a twist. After an event, we look back and say, “It had to happen this way.” The market crash, the product flop, the hiring mistake — all of it seems predictable once we know the ending.
But before the outcome? Things were messy, uncertain, and full of competing possibilities. We forget that. Our brains rewrite the story so it feels neat and obvious.
Why It Matters in Business
In organizations, creeping determinism can be dangerous. Here’s why:
- It punishes risk‑taking. If every failed experiment looks “obvious” in hindsight, people stop trying new things.
- It distorts learning. Instead of asking “What could we have done differently?” we say “We should have known better.” That shuts down curiosity.
- It fuels blame. Leaders and teams start pointing fingers instead of acknowledging that uncertainty is part of the game.
How to Push Back
So how do you fight creeping determinism? A few practical moves:
- Document decisions in the moment. Write down what you knew, what you didn’t, and why you chose the path you did. Later, you’ll have a record that shows the uncertainty was real.
- Normalize uncertainty. Remind your team that not every outcome can be forecast. Sometimes you make the best call with the data you have, and that’s enough.
- Focus on process, not just results. A good decision can still lead to a bad outcome. Judge the quality of the thinking, not just the scoreboard.
- Celebrate smart risks. Even if they don’t pan out, reward the courage to try. That’s how innovation happens.
The Takeaway
Creeping determinism makes us feel like prophets after the fact, but it’s a trick of the mind. The truth is, the future is always uncertain until it becomes the past.
Gladwell’s point is that leaders need to resist the urge to rewrite history. Instead, embrace the messiness of decision‑making. That’s where growth, resilience, and real learning live.
So the next time you catch yourself saying, “We should have seen it coming,” pause. Maybe you couldn’t have. And that’s okay.